• Was Trump a full-on, recruited Russian agent? The answers are highly unlikely, with moderate confidence.
• Was Trump a useful idiot/fellow traveler? The evaluations were likely to highly likely, with moderate to high confidence.
• And did Trump knowingly encourage Russian help for political gain, not to spy but for selfish reasons? The responses were likely, with high confidence.
Of course, no direct hard evidence exists to substantiate these AI responses. Yet, given Trump's clear tilt toward Russia and Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine conflict, and how he dealt favorably with the Russian president during his first term, questions obviously arose. Posing the same questions vis a vis China showed no direct links to Trump.
Yet, for arguments that follow, the obvious winners of Trump's America First and other policies are Russia and China. In the case of Russia, whether that is a function of this conspiratorial view of Trump or simply a strategic miscalculation or worse is academic. Trump, for the time being, seems deposed to Russia's side in the Ukraine war.
That may change if the negotiations break down.
Moreover, Trump has challenged U.S. commitments to its friends and allies to the core. In NATO, active discussions are ongoing about an alliance without America or with a very diminished presence. One signal of future U.S. intent is whether the Supreme Allied Commander Europe will remain an American, as it has since Dwight D. Eisenhower held that position in 1949.
Similarly, in the Pacific, Asian allies are questioning strategically what the United States might or might not do in the event of a Taiwan crisis and economically how to respond to the tariffs.
The case that many allies make is why dismantle the international trading system that has worked so well for what seems to be no good reason other than Trump's dislike and disdain for trade imbalances.
Further, the argument that Trump wants manufacturing to return to America's shores defies the reality of a modern economy in which services are a mainstay and does not consider who would want to work on assembly lines and factories reminiscent of the past two centuries.
This twin assault on commitments to friends and allies and the trading system have created a golden geostrategic and geoeconomic opening for Russia and China.
NATO's recent addition of Sweden and Finland to the alliance has created a 1,400-mile problem for Russia and its shared border with Finland. And both new members challenge Moscow over control of the Baltic that is now a NATO lake, putting at risk Russia's outpost in Kaliningrad outside its borders.
But if or when the United States reduces its commitments or disengages and cuts its priorities and forces in Europe, that will nullify these strategic disadvantages. Putin is taking full advantage of this threat to NATO in his diplomatic and other overtures and reminding his neighbors of his military and nuclear forces looming in the background, despite the huge losses in Ukraine
China is a different story. Trump's trade wars with tariffs are disrupting the global economic order by introducing such huge uncertainties that unravel both stock and bond markets. That benefits China. Why? No one can predict how far or how long this trade war will last or how it will end. Meanwhile, China offers an alternative as a trading partner.
President Xi Jingping and the Chinese leadership fully comprehend the geoeconomic and strategic windows that have opened. Xi's visit to Vietnam was an example. U.S. tariffs hit Vietnam hard, as well as many other countries. The question is whether China will fill this void, replacing the United States as a partner. And China has long envisioned making the yuan the reserve currency instead of the once all-mighty dollar.
But who in the administration is worrying about these very possible tectonic strategic and economic shifts? And who, if anyone, can apply a sufficiently powerful argument to change Trump's thinking before an economic meltdown throws the United States into a recession or worse? That person is certainly not obvious.
This returns to the AI evaluation of Trump. While many will dismiss its findings that show at least a leaning toward Russia, the fact is this favoritism is not in our interests, nor NATO's. And while there is no linkage between Trump and the Chinese government, why has he given both Russia and China such an opportunity for what could be unintended strategic and economic coups? A good question.
Harlan Ullman is UPI's Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council, chairman of a private company and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next, book co-written with General The Lord David Richards, former U.K. chief of defense and due out late next year, is The Arc of Failure: Can Decisive Strategic Thinking Transform a Dangerous World? The writer can be reached on X @harlankullman.
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